24 Jun

AMA: How Do You Improve Your Odds As A Trader?

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What a wild market it’s been.

With coronavirus cases ticking up…

Traders are fearful this can be the beginning of the second wave.

For me right now, I want to remain patient with momentum stocks.

Since I had a little bit of free time today, I wanted to take a stab at some of the questions on my Ask Me Anything queue.

I noticed a slew of responses from readers…

Asking me, How Do You Improve Your Odds As A Trader?

For me personally, I think it’s simple.

I focus on the “bookie” advantage…

It’s how I approach the options market, and one I use to take advantage of…

Some of the “stupid bets” out there.

Today, I want to give you a taste of my thought process when it comes to the options market…

And how I stack the odds in my favor.

 

Why It’s Important To Play The Probabilities

Stocks are a lot different from options. Stocks can either go up or down, in general… and timing the moves is what sets the good traders from the “bad” ones, in my opinion. On the other hand, options are a lot different. You see, there are a few factors that go into the pricing of options. For example, many amateur options traders will go out and buy calls because they think a stock is going to go higher… Rather than buying the stock outright, the options provide them with leverage. However, what they typically don’t take into account is the other factors that go into option prices. You see, implied volatility and time decay play a factor. So when they buy calls outright, they’re actually betting the level of implied volatility will go higher and the stock will go higher within a certain time period. I know what you’re thinking… Does that mean I shouldn’t trade options? Absolutely not. I sometimes am a buyer of options when I have high conviction on a pattern or catalyst…  But I don’t just go around buying options randomly. You see, depending on which strike price you select and where the stock is trading… The odds can be stacked against traders. What do I mean by that? Well, let’s say you think Apple Inc. (AAPL) is going to run higher… The stock is currently trading around the $360s. Let’s say a trader wants to buy calls, and select $375 strike price calls expiring on June 26 (just 2 days until expiration). Those calls were going for around 50 cents. To an amateur trader, that looks like a great trade… they can trade AAPL for cheap. But what they’re not taking into account AAPL would need to get above $375.50 just to break even. They would need an explosive move in AAPL to actually make money. Not only that, but they’re at the mercy of time. To me, that’s a “sucker” bet because chances are that’s not going to happen. Can it happen? Sure, but the probability of that happening is slim. So what’s the solution? Well, I like to use the “bookie” advantage. You see, with options, the odds come into play here… and sometimes, there are trades out there in which the probability of a stock moving to a certain level is so low… It’s like going to the casino and just throwing away cash. I actually use a risk-defined strategy to collect premium from those “sucker” bets. I know what you’re wondering… Jason, what’s the strategy? I can tell you what it is… But I think it’s better if I show you how it works…In my exclusive training session, where I reveal the “bookie” advantage and the strategy I use to take advantage of the “stupid bets” in the options market.

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