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19 Mar

Monday March 19, 2012

by

Hello Again!

What a great March it’s been for us so far with SNPK, JVA and now NEOM… talk about in like a lion! This week the goal is to protect those gains hitting 5 to 10% on most trades while searching for the next big winner. Remember, with my swing long strategy I’m more than fine looking for 20 to 30% scores but most will still be 5 to 10%. Oh, and check out HUSA, remember we were in that trade last week and just missed that bottom, it’s a great example of why oversold plays are my favorite and why it’s important to try and find bottom.

Most European stock markets are down this morning, with banks and miners leading the way. U.S. stock-index futures are heading lower as well after a huge run last week that took major indexes to multiyear highs. Apple Inc. is expected to be in focus as the company planned a conference call regarding its nearly $100 billion cash hoard. With very little economic news, earnings season winding down and overbought indexes there’s a very real chance we start to see the market drift lower but I don’t expect anything drastic.

Important Updates

By the end of this week JasonBondPicks will be up and running as the home of premium content. While it’s no ready for memberships yet, I’m going to load a lot of information there this week so you can get used to using the new site.

Open Trades

LYSCF – 20,000 shares at $1.30 (current $1.30) swing long. I won’t be shy to add size around $1.20 should it go there and plan to hold this one for the $1.70’s. I think the rare earth situation in China would spark a big move in LYSCF in the coming weeks if it plays out right.

DANG – 5,000 shares at $7.18 (current $7.50) swing long. I’m looking for a breakout here into the $8 range.

PCX – 6,000 shares at $6.72 (current $7.19) swing long. Should be smooth sailing up to $8 at which point I’ll assess the trade. I’d be happy at $8 but think there’s a real chance this stock hits $9 to $10 so patience might be the name of the game here.

PZZI – 10,000 shares at $4.64 (current $4.61) swing long. This is also one of the best small cap stories we will see in a long time. If the company puts out some good news, which they are completely capable off, I think it could really get going.

TVIX – 5,000 shares at $18.59 (current $14.81) swing long. Just waiting for the VIX to climb. My goal is $24 to $30. Nice article on big banks buying volatility now.

Understanding the Watch List

My watch list approach is to stalk three technical patterns; oversold, continuation and breakouts while researching for excellent catalysts. Every Monday I’ll introduce new swing trade ideas for that week. The target market cap is between $50 million and $2 billion with a Beta of 1 or higher priced between $.25 and $10. Daily liquidity of is a must so $500,000 or more for consideration. My goal is to bid support and sell strength making 5-10% profit per swing with a tight stop loss when the trade goes against me. The ‘Swing’ time frame is 1-4 day holds and the ‘Swing long’ time frame is 1-20 day holds. There’s also a Nano cap category called ‘Penny’ featuring a basket of companies with market caps below $50 million, these are not sorted by the three technical patterns. If I initiate a trade from my master watch of about 100 companies it’ll come to you by chat, text and email in real time.

1. Expand 2. Play 3. Select 720p for HD quality

Oversold – HOGS, CAST, HUSA, HDY, NSU

Monday – HOGS selling volume is slowing, but in a bear market this could still wash again, right now watch $8.27 for support. CAST should find support soon, right now $4.38 is the number we’re going to work with and assess daily. HUSA is a great example of why I put this list out, we were in this trade last week but got out because I feared another pull, which it did before jumped 30% Friday… it’s on the list because it’s still oversold and could head up another $1 to $2 per share from here before resistance. HDY into the gap could be coming soon, watch $1.52 resistance and volume for your trigger but this would only be a swing given all the bad news out of the company lately. NSU is a great chart off bottom, the low to watch is $3.21 and if that sticks a move to $3.75 or even $4.35 is possible.

Continuation – HERO, PWER, RENN, LOCM, XIDE

Monday – HERO worked out of consolidation Friday and should be heading to $5.60 at which point it’s a possible breakout. PWER on the curl looks great with resistance at $5.30 and $6, support at $4.47. RENN is one of my better catalyst based plays right now, I figure buyout speculation and Facebook’s IPO could send shares to $7 again soon so keep it on watch, especially given their last round of solid earnings. LOCM is one of my favorite swing trades and I’ve neglected to work it recently off the $2.11 low back in January, this curl toward $2.80 makes me believe a move to $3.20 or even $4 is coming soon. XIDE is pushing into the gap and a break of $3.15 could lead to a solid swing move.

Breakout – BPZ, PWAV, REE, DVR, COCO

Monday – BPZ solid chart suggesting it wants the upper $4’s. PWAV sure looks like a move to $3 or even $4 is right around the corner. REE is a rare earth play for those who could not get in LYSCF, I think the China situation could take this to $8 or even $10 swing long. DVR just continues to sit in this uptrend but one of these days it’s going to jump and hold 20% and my guess is sooner than later, with clear skies to $5 you’d be wise to keep this one on watch. COCO must have some huge bids behind it and this pattern here suggest a move to at least $5.20 is coming.

Penny – LEE, PEIX, GSX, PLUG, MCZ

Monday – LEE talk about a consolidation pattern, NEOM’s intraday chart looked the same as LEE’s daily, a move to $1.20’s would test short term resistance and if it can climb then $1.73 would be a huge profit. PEIX moves in waves and it sure looks like another wave to $1.30’s or even $1.50’s is coming. GSX is not my favorit chart but if $.33 to $.37 goes it could see the mid $.40’s which would be a nice score from here. PLUG is a decent nano cap with some big clients, not saying I’d buy right here but watch close for a curl off that $1.70 bottom. MCZ I won’t chase because I want it closer to $.50 but the pattern is curling here and could pop to the $.60’s soon.

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