Why NNVC is a Bond Note
I’ll cut right to the chase; I believe NNVC has ‘real money’ 10 bagger potential long term. When I say real money I mean I’m trying to put $25,000 in and take $250,000 out.
NNVC has been rumored as a buyout target; however I’ve heard the CEO wouldn’t entertain a $2 or even $5 bid. If that’s the case, just the talk of a buyout or a listing on a major exchange is sure to cause runup. NanoViricide is also in the process of applying for clinical trials for FluCide and could submit an official IND application for the drug.
Technically it’s at support in which I’m willing to try for long term positioning around $.54. Even if I’m way off base, we’re positioning at technical support providing a tight stop for reentry and a technical double up channel trade or 100% to $1.10 resistance i.e. almost all of my Bond Notes will utilize swing video lesson 1 to try and get the best possible entry.
NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC) is a Biotech firm that is creating special purpose nano-materials for antiviral therapy. The company is in the developing stages of creating drugs for various viral diseases including H1N1 Swine Flu, H5N1 Bird Flu, seasonal Influenza, HIV, Oral and Genital Herpes, viral diseases of the eye including EKC and herpes keratitis, Hepatitis C, Rabies, Dengue fever, and Ebola virus, as well.
Current Environment and Industry
Since the beginning of this year, a vibrant and growing Biotech industry has outperformed the market returning almost 30% versus 15%. (Comparing the Nasdaq Biotechnology index NBI vs the Nasdaq composite index IXIC).
Over the past 7 years, the Biotech industry has gone under a period of consolidation. Big name players such as Sanofi-Aventis bought Genzyme Corp for more than $20 billion. Moreover, the once polarized sectors of pharmacy and biotechnology are now converging. The Wall Street Journal estimated that between 2006 and 2011 big pharmaceutical companies spent $130 billion dollars acquiring small biotech firms.
Legislation has also helped fuel growth in the Biotech industry. In September 2009 President Obama announced a $5 billion plan to fund medical research and the US senate approved an increase in the FDA’s budget of $3.86 billion for 2012. Even more recently, the highly debated Health Care Bill mandates that everyone has insurance or pay the penalty tax. Such legislation should enable Biotech companies to access capital for R&D and promote various incentives for breakthrough technologies.
Key news for NanoViricides
On May 8th 2012 NanoViricides released that their fundamental patent was approved for their technology on “Solubilization and Targeted Delivery of Drugs with Self-Assembling Amphiphilic Polymers” in the US (No. 8,173,764). President and Chairman Dr. Diwan adds that “these biomimetic features allow us to make the nanoviricide look like a host-cell membrane to the virus, with the goal of deceiving the virus to land on it and thereupon destroy itself.” They have also contracted the services of Mr. Andrew Hahn to help with the overall design and construction of its laboratory and cGMP pilot production facility. Mr. Hahn has almost 30 years of experience in architecture, design and project management in the creation of new refurbished facilities at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company.
NanoViricides main products in the pipeline are FluCide for bird flu, EKC Cide for external eye viral diseases, and HivCide for HIV. Fears of global bird flu pandemic have arisen each year. In fact, China has culled 150,000 chickens as of July 3, 2012. Reports show that the strain of avian flu has already killed 1,600 chickens and sickened another 5,500 in China. NanoViricides FluCide could pose as a potential solution. FluCide is the closest drug to clinical trials that is designed to target the H5N1 bird flu. In a recent study, researchers did a comparative study between TamiFlu (the current treatment for influenza) and FluCide. The Flucide the treated animals survived the lethal infection for the duration of the study while none of the TamiFlu treated animals survived beyond eight days. NanoViricide is in the process of applying for clinical trials for FluCide and could submit an official IND application for the drug.
On November 25th 2011 I spotted an article on ARNA and alerted it at $1.27 as my favorite swing trade idea. The following day it gapped to $1.44 and I missed my entry. Several days later I hit a nice 10% swing on ARNA. Within 7 months ARNA was a 10 bagger up 963% from $1.27 to $13.50. I believe over the next year or two, NNVC has similar potential. Keep in mind, expert critics chastised ARNA right up until FDA approval.
It should be warranted that NNVC is a high-risk, high-reward stock. Given the evidence, NanoViricide could prove to be a potential breakthrough company as it partners with existing biotech firms and it progressively moves towards clinical trials. At the same time, the lack of revenues and negative cash flows requires the company to continually seek external financing from private investors. More significantly, the company has yet to submit their FluCide drug to clinical trials. Therefore, it’s possibly a little too early to tell if NNVC will be a break through drug like Dendreon or Arena Pharmaceuticals but for me the risk is worth the reward and that’s why NNVC is my first Bond Note.