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21 Mar

Thursday March 22, 2012

by

Good Evening!

Thursday we’ll start using my new chat so please create a temporary username / password HERE, alerts will still go out by Profitly text and email because mine won’t be ready until April 1.

Remember, JasonBondPicks is where my premium swing and day trade content will be and theStockMarketWatch is where my premium chat is located – once we move the database and integration is done next week I’ll provide you with a username / password that gets you into both websites.

The password for the swing trade room is D!$c!pl!n*dtr@d*R and please just copy and paste which is right click copy and right click paste or CTRL C and CTRL V. If  you copy a blank space at the front or end of the password it will not work.

This video details how to use the new chat. Remember – premium content will be at JasonBondPicks (JBP) and my premium chat is at theStockMarketWatch (tSMW). You’ll be given a username / password next week that works for both.

1. Expand 2. Play 3. Select 1080p for HD

No trades for me today, was busy testing a new webinar software and getting JasonBondPicks ready for premium content next week. I’ll probably be off my game a little until April 1 at which point I think things will return to normal. I honestly appreciate your patience in this matter and apologize for all the confusion.

Open Trades

EA – 2,000 shares at $17.10 (current $17.01) swing long. Looks like $1 per share downside for a possible $4 per share upside.

HL – 5,000 shares at $4.59 (current $4.59) swing long. I’ll add size at some point with a goal of $1 per share profit into the $6’s.

LYSCF – 20,000 shares at $1.30 (current $1.21) swing long. I won’t be shy to add size and plan to hold this one for the $1.70’s.

PCX – 6,000 shares at $6.72 (current $6.96) swing long. Should be smooth sailing to $8 from here and it’s possible this heads higher.

PZZI – 10,000 shares at $4.64 (current $4.74) swing long. Higher lows is a good sign so far, I like this trade back into the $5 to $7 range soon.

TVIX – 5,000 shares at $18.59 (current $14.45) swing long. Just waiting for the VIX to climb.

Understanding the Watch List

My watch list approach is to stalk three technical patterns; oversold, continuation and breakouts while researching for excellent catalysts. Every Monday I’ll introduce new swing trade ideas for that week. The target market cap is between $50 million and $2 billion with a Beta of 1 or higher priced between $.25 and $10. Daily liquidity of is a must so $500,000 or more for consideration. My goal is to bid support and sell strength making 5-10% profit per swing with a tight stop loss when the trade goes against me. The ‘Swing’ time frame is 1-4 day holds and the ‘Swing long’ time frame is 1-20 day holds. There’s also a Nano cap category called ‘Penny’ featuring a basket of companies with market caps below $50 million, these are not sorted by the three technical patterns. If I initiate a trade from my master watch of about 100 companies it’ll come to you by chat, text and email in real time.

1. Expand 2. Play 3. Select 720p for HD

Oversold – HOGS, CAST, HUSA, HDY, NSU

Thursday – HOGS is a great example of how to swing trade, look at that $8.11 bottom and today it closed at the high of day, my favorite type of trading are these oversold plays, already a winner and might test $9 tomorrow if the market is up. CAST textbook as well but I don’t think it’ll push through $5 by Friday’s close without news. HUSA is a good example of how these bottom bounces can often be short lived, no play for me. HDY nice move holding $1.29 from Tuesday, no entry for me but I’m watching close swing Thursday into Friday. NSU no comment see Wednesday’s thoughts. Favorite is HDY into the gap.

Wednesday – HOGS candle over candle is working off the $8.11 bottom, in today’s bullish market a move to $9 or more is reasonable. CAST confirmed Tuesday as well over the $4.38 low and should test $5 today before settling around $4.90. HUSA gave too much back to begin with Monday and another 4% Tuesday so no trade for me anymore because there will be sellers just ahead now. HDY does not look like this week will bring the move into the gap but if it holds $1.29 today I might test my entry as that would be the 4th higher low since the gap down. NSU textbook bottom bounce and I think it could test $3.75 today but no play now with earnings after today’s close.

Tuesday – HOGS saw some buyers return today after it gaped down at the open, the new low to work off of here is $8.11 so if we get candle over candle Tuesday morning don’t be shocked if I move on this swing for $1 per share, they’ll probably be some shorts looking to get out but watch out for big sellers moving into strength if it does continue, added caution in a bear market. CAST candle over candle is in but the problem was the open which saw shares move from $4.45 to $4.71 in the first 10 minutes before it drifted lower and closed strong, I was honestly hoping to see it drift lower first to increase the trading range between the price and resistance at $4.92, I’m watching close but probably won’t enter based on risk reward. HUSA retraced about 10% which is to be expected after Friday’s squeeze off the bottom, now we watch for it to creep up and if it does candle over candle entry applies with Monday’s low at $6.30 acting as the stop, overall I was hoping to see it hold the high $6’s to illustrate strength. HDY would you please just move into the gap for crying out loud, tomorrow watch for a creeping action around $1.45 to suggest it wants to test $1.52 resistance this week and run into the gap, something tells me this trades above $1.52 this week so I’m watching close. NSU is textbook candle over candle but volume dried up today after the initial squeeze, let’s see what tomorrow brings because earnings are Wednesday after the close so maybe $3.75 to $4 before the call.

Monday – HOGS selling volume is slowing, but in a bear market this could still wash again, right now watch $8.27 for support. CAST should find support soon, right now $4.38 is the number we’re going to work with and assess daily. HUSA is a great example of why I put this list out, we were in this trade last week but got out because I feared another pull, which it did before jumped 30% Friday… it’s on the list because it’s still oversold and could head up another $1 to $2 per share from here before resistance. HDY into the gap could be coming soon, watch $1.52 resistance and volume for your trigger but this would only be a swing given all the bad news out of the company lately. NSU is a great chart off bottom, the low to watch is $3.21 and if that sticks a move to $3.75 or even $4.35 is possible.

Continuation – HERO, PWER, RENN, LOCM, XIDE

Thursday – HERO solid 6% today and honestly if I wasn’t so busy I’m positive I’d have been in this trade, I still think a move to $6.50 is coming but I won’t chase it up here swing. PWER is starting to drift a little and that concerns me, this retracement is okay considering the markets were down but I would like to see the Relative Strength bounce off the center line Thursday regardless of the market. RENN feels heavy in through here which is why I’m looking for $5 entry. LOCM squeeze play into the weekend, trust me I’ve seen it before it’s worth watching Thursday and Friday for volume. XIDE trying so hard to hold range and get into that gap, tested $3.32 today but when the market pulled so did the price, most of Wedensday’s buyers are resistance now so the market will need to be up for this one to have a chance. Favorite is RENN off of $5.

Wednesday – HERO should break $5.22 today and if it closes above that level I believe a breakout at $5.60 could happen by Friday provided the overall market remains bullish which appears to be the case right now. PWER retraced a little but snapped right back to hold the upper range of Friday’s move, watch for a $4.75 break today with a stop below Tuesday’s low of $4.51. RENN‘s CEO was featured on CNBC Tuesday night and the stock moved up after hours but pulled a bit before the 8 p.m. EST close, I think a move to $6 this week is possible after which I do believe shares will hit $7 once Facebook’s IPO dominates the media again, this tight consolidation pattern might break today, close watch. LOCM continues to hold the 50 Moving Average so key $2.70 to $2.80 for the $3.20 move, stop below the 20 Moving Average of $2.54. XIDE is rejecting a move into the gap and if it doesn’t break into there soon I’d expect a profit taking dip to at least $3, possibly triple bottom at $2.68.

Tuesday – HERO trended lower across the day on sizable volume, if it holds above $5 or the 20 Moving Average watch for buyers on the bid and if they line up a move to $5.60 might be in store this week, this week or next though watch HERO to $6.50 soon, I think this pattern is leading to a breakout at $5.60 if the market stays strong. PWER didn’t do anything today so you’ll be shocked to here me say that’s great but it is, consider Friday’s big move and it held range today leads me to believe it could pop out of this pattern to $5.30 later in the week, I’d feel even better if it held above the 50 Moving Average but that’s a real tight stop and probably not reasonable for this trade. RENN is a trade I’ll be in soon and I’m watching daily to position with size on the bid, right now I continue to think just above $5 is where I want it swing long to $7. LOCM above the 50 Moving Average is key which is currently $2.61, hold that curl and if $2.79 falls I’m fairly confident $3.20 resistance will be tested. XIDE really looks like a big candle could develop this week so watch it close, the bid will be the tell here just before it goes so knowing your level II goes a long way and mark $3.23 as your gap down resistance.

Monday – HERO worked out of consolidation Friday and should be heading to $5.60 at which point it’s a possible breakout. PWER on the curl looks great with resistance at $5.30 and $6, support at $4.47. RENN is one of my better catalyst based plays right now, I figure buyout speculation and Facebook’s IPO could send shares to $7 again soon so keep it on watch, especially given their last round of solid earnings. LOCM is one of my favorite swing trades and I’ve neglected to work it recently off the $2.11 low back in January, this curl toward $2.80 makes me believe a move to $3.20 or even $4 is coming soon. XIDE is pushing into the gap and a break of $3.15 could lead to a solid swing move.

Breakout – BPZ, PWAV, REE, DVR, COCO

Thursday – BPZ looks great and while the RSI is near overbought that’s to be expected with a breakout pending play, buyers returned today despite the markets being soft so if we see any bullish action into the weekend this could pop to $4.50 maybe more. PWAV was today’s winner up 22% and I’m kicking myself for not having a bid in at the 50 Moving Average yesterday which is now $.50 per share, honestly I’ve been slammed trying to get us back to JasonBondPicks and won’t miss these cupcakes once things settle April 1, bull market and it could see $3 now. REE is primed and ready, keep watch on rare earths cause this could pop to $8 swing long. DVR is starting to get attractive again off the 20 and 200 Moving Averages, $3.30 is probably my target for the reversal in this uptrend. COCO is hanging around and while it probably won’t breakout this week I believe a 10% pop is sitting in that pattern so just watch the 1 minute chart if you can. Favorite is COCO on a sudden 10% squeeze before Friday’s close.

Wednesday – BPZ pulled a little Tuesday with the bears but held above $4 so it’s still in play but if volume doesn’t increase today resistance new resistance at $4.24 could slow a breakout. PWAV I pegged for a breakout last week Friday but my timing was off, Tuesday the price bounced off $1.72 so there is support at the 50 Moving Average which might make today a good time to test this one out, $2.05 resistance is the breakout key. REE continues to hold above $6 and if volume increases today I’d expect a move to $7 soon. DVR pulled 5% Tuesday which is typical for breakout pending plays when the market is down, that said no play for me here now but I would not be shocked if is snapped back today and tested $3.60’s. COCO still looks good especially if it recovers today so I’m watching it close for a move into the $5’s.

Tuesday – BPZ is itching to burst but the only question is will it have enough juice to sustain a move around $4.50 if it gets there, pattern is still in play and I think tomorrow will be the test, key volume near the high of day on a 5 day 1 minute chart as always on breakouts. PWAV is holding range and if it trades between $1.70 and $2.05 I’ll keep watching close for that monster move I think it’s capable of making up to $3 or $4. REE rejecting resistance around $6.50 and while I won’t play this one because I already have my rare earth play with LYSCF, I do believe it could trade around $8 and possibly higher swing long if China continues to cause problems here. DVR just keeps creeping higher and while I don’t trust this stock it wouldn’t stop me from trying to bag a quick 5 to 10% if it starts to breakout because there is no resistance until $5, light volume Monday suggests a pull in a bear market so tight stops on all breakout pending plays. COCO is one I moved on today in the day trade room but it didn’t quite take off, however I think tomorrow will be the day so I’m watching close as not only a swing to $5.20 but a solid day trade as well.

Monday – BPZ solid chart suggesting it wants the upper $4’s. PWAV sure looks like a move to $3 or even $4 is right around the corner. REE is a rare earth play for those who could not get in LYSCF, I think the China situation could take this to $8 or even $10 swing long. DVR just continues to sit in this uptrend but one of these days it’s going to jump and hold 20% and my guess is sooner than later, with clear skies to $5 you’d be wise to keep this one on watch. COCO must have some huge bids behind it and this pattern here suggest a move to at least $5.20 is coming.

Penny – LEE, PEIX, GSX, PLUG, MCZ

Thursday – LEE jumped on news but it didn’t stick and most of it occurred on the gap from $1.10 to $1.16 so it actually closed down on the day which tells me it’s probably not ready although watching volume for a squeeze might be wise. PEIX weaker but not by much, still on watch but no play for me here. GSX sellers backed off today and $.29 continues to act as support, if the markets are up this could reverse on a dime but if the bears roam Thursday $.28 support will probably be tested. PLUG continued lower and I’ll probably get a bid in at $1.35 next week because the last time it was down there it doubled, light volume play so swing long will be the strategy. MCZ off last week’s watch list is now rubbing it in, this is what I get for being greedy and trying for entry just above the 52 week low at $.50, nearing overbought now I’d expect a pull from$.68 but that doesn’t mean I’d give up on the trade if I picked it up around $.55 when we first started watching, instead some sideways action above the 50 or 20 Moving Averages could open the door to bigger run to $.80 or even $1. Favorite is PLUG off $1.35 double bottom support.

Wednesday – LEE only did 85,761 in volume Tuesday so it’s just on watch for now but when the bulls return I’ll probably swing it because this is popular stock that goes in cycles. PEIX continues to hold above $1.10 but yesterday’s 3% pull leads me to believe a move to $1.30’s might be wishful thinking this week. GSX pulled form the breakout and this is a good example of what happens to a breakout pending stock when the markets pull, no play for me here obviously but it did snap back nicely off bottom. PLUG is drifting lower as expected, target bid remains $1.50 to $1.35. MCZ ‘Oh baby you, you got what I need…’ darn I should not have been so stubborn last week at $.54 but oh well, nice to see this one confirm from the watch list in our desired time, I think this could see $1 again but clearly $.62 resistance is putting up a fight so sideways for a few days while it consolidates and moves up again is what I’d expect.

Tuesday – LEE tight accumulation continues here so watch for volume and a move to $1.27 and probably this week. PEIX continues to hold range but the more I look at it the more I think the recent move on huge volume will create a lot of resistance should it pop, on watch but probably not trade for me. GSX was the watch list winner up 14% at the close, see if it breaks $.38 and the door is open to the mid $.40’s. PLUG had no buyers today which says it’ll likely head lower in a bear market meaning this probably isn’t the bottom yet so $1.50 is my new target to bid, maybe even double bottom at $1.35 depending on how it washes out of this pattern when the overall market is down and the bears are roaming. MCZ nice move to $.62 but it couldn’t hold the run up about 20% from the recent low, $.62 is key resistance now and no trade for me since I was hoping for a $.50 bid, however I still like it to $1 swing long so I’m watching daily for my ideal entry since it’s a light volume play.

Monday – LEE talk about a consolidation pattern, NEOM’s intraday chart looked the same as LEE’s daily, a move to $1.20’s would test short term resistance and if it can climb then $1.73 would be a huge profit. PEIX moves in waves and it sure looks like another wave to $1.30’s or even $1.50’s is coming. GSX is not my favorite chart but if $.33 to $.37 goes it could see the mid $.40’s which would be a nice score from here. PLUG is a decent nano cap with some big clients, not saying I’d buy right here but watch close for a curl off that $1.70 bottom. MCZ I won’t chase because I want it closer to $.50 but the pattern is curling here and could pop to the $.60’s soon.

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2 Comments

  1. rick sparks

    Jason, in my opinion you are the most passionate, profesional and hardest working trader out there. I still believe in you and am behind you 100%. Lets get over this tvix hurdle together and move forward towards our goals of kickin some market ass one swing at a time. I can’t begin to explain how much your teaching has improved my trading and knowledge. Thanks for all you do. Rick Sparks

    Reply
  2. rick parrin

    JB – you take on too much. That email last night was disgusting and I would have never joined in on a session like that.

    Lets just get back to the basics (don’t change what was working for the sake of change – only enhance the relationship if you firmly believe it’s for the good of all of us). The swing trade was our bread and butter and we were just “getting it.” The Day Trading is risky but it looks like you made a commitment to those folks which is a shame because it can cause undue stress/lack of focus on the swing side (and you).

    You said you want to teach us. Well if all you want is a group of “high rollers” who have $200K+ to toss around, I’m out. If you want to be more inclusive (like you were) of those who might have $30k – $50k +/- or less who want to build to that $200k, then we need the discipline, guidance and “don’t be greedy” JB that we all knew.

    Put tvix in the rear view mirror – people who got in knew what they were getting into. If they followed you blindly, they accepted the same risk that you did. When I make a trade based on your teachings, your guidance, your knowledge, I make it with conviction (and with a stop).

    Shake it off – let’s go!

    Reply

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